Today there is oil everywhere, but the most significant difference is that this new oil (i.e. shale oil) its safe and reliable oil (unlike most OPECs). It does not bring any geopolitical risk. It does not need to be transported long distances to the consumer (e.g. refineries in USA) and it can be produced almost as you would produce a car in an assembly line. This is really, high volume, low risk cheap energy.
If you ask a veteran oil man, you might hear, yes, this is another cycle. why? well, the demand for energy only goes up as there is more people in this planet, and oil provides an efficient way to solve this issue. This is what I call the "standard demand" (no allegations to Standard oil". On the other hand, the supply is limited and will eventually decline. What can be different this time around: cell phones!
This off-road story is to highlight the demand side of this picture. We are entering a supply driven "cycle" while being on a relatively high oil-related-energy demand period. But this might change in a few years, maybe in only a couple of years. What if we get a demand shock while we are still at this supply driven cycle? say China's economy, Eurozone crisis, or even more unlikely but yet more shocking, a transformation of the OECD countries' car fleet. A massive move towards cheaper, safer, reliable and extremely powerful electric cars which by the way come with an incentive. Alternatively, a war-like scenario, Russia-Ukraine, Libya disruptions, could offer a breather to the bearish giant, but don't get fooled. People are trading the future volumes now, the supply glut needs to be sorted out by the market itself, forget OPEC, only a visible reduction in shale oil could make this market bounce back hard. CAPEX cuts by majors only delay projects out in time, they don't necessarily cut production. What is happening now looks less and less like a cycle, and more and more like a change in the way the world of energy is set to work from now on. We only need the demand reduction to fill the gap. Sorry bulls...