This strategy is not only
applicable to Forex. In fact, all the charts I am going to show you are from commodities.
Brent and Gold to be more specific. My task to you is that you set up this into
any currency pair and see for yourself.
The first thing you need to know,
and mark my words: Trading is not about position size, it is about timing. In
other words, you can make lots of money with a small position if you time your
entry well. Big positions only add unwanted pressure.
Set up:
- Hourly chart or beyond – candle sticks
- 5 period moving average
- 9 period moving average
- Stop and Reversal (SAR) : default settings
- Volume: 1 unit +3 units
*
By 1 unit we mean, your minimum position, with the maximum of 4 units at
one point.
Entry:
Long: 1 unit
- Once you see a SAR dot below the prices, you wait until there is a crossover (5 thru 9) and the price action comes back to your moving average. Enter the position as close as possible to that moving average. Here we start “milking” the trend (if the trend unfolds of course). The way you make money is by taking profit at a defined target that is no larger than the size of the previous candles (including its shadow). If your target is too far, you will not be able to milk it. So, you are basically, taking profit at parity with the volatility at that moment. Once you have taken profit, you would wait for another retracement to the moving average and enter a fresh 1xunit. Repeat this process for as long as you see the trend.
Stop Loss:
Below the previous SAR dot to the current candle. Since
there is a long way to that level, the risk/reward is quite elevated for this
trade, therefore respecting the 1 unit volume mandate is important. In the picture above, the trade is successful
and you can carry that as long as the SAR allows you to.
On a short trade, apply the same principle. Sell 1 unit at a
retracement towards the two moving averages with the SAR above prices.
When to max the position?
Entry: 3xunits
Let’s say it is a very volatile day and the nice trend shown
in the pictures above is not quite what you see in the market. Instead you see
the picture below:
- This is where you make the money. This is all about measuring your risk and taking advantage of an existing trend that is well developed.
- In this case, you are very close to your stop level and you can take more risk. If you get stopped, well too bad, you lost a little bit, but if the trade succeeds, you will remember this strategy for the rest of your life. Remember, you can continue to milk the trade afterwards, and you are free to exit your 3xunits whenever it suits you best.
- Another example follows:
The trend here is coming to an end; however it will try to
stay alive and here is where you come in. Seeing that you are close to the
reversal point, buy your 3 units and set your stop below the average of the SAR
dots. This is a short term trade, as opposed to the first one.
The conditions to enter this trade are simple:
1.- You need a well-developed trend, basically, many red
dots. A new trend giving you this signal will only play you for a fool.
2.- Your stop is very important. If the trend is dying, you
will see lots of SAR dots horizontally aligned. Your stop should be easy to set
just below the dots for a long entry (as seen above).
3.- Choose a stop loss level that makes sense. In the case
below, look at our stop, it is set above the previous high and also above the
current SAR dot.
It is only common sense to give yourself some room, while
still keeping a good risk/reward ratio. See on another example below. The
second stop obviates the previous dot because its horizontally aligned to the
latest one. Again, some common sense will protect you from getting whipped:
Pitfalls: (pay
attention because I fell into all of them, that’s how I know they exist)
1.- New born trend with prices on the wrong side of the
moving averages.
2. Divergence: The SAR is telling you something but prices
are obviously going in the opposite direction. The SAR is supposed to be
parabolic. You will recognize divergence because the SAR shows no bulge. Stay
out of that trade.
You are not supposed to win all. I am going to end this post
with a losing trade. Can you identify where the trade has gone wrong?
Look again: In this case, you would have entered a 1 unit
long at the first green bubble, then prices move against us, we add 3 units at
the second green bubble and not long after that we get stopped! Not long after that, we enter a new short
position and recover some of that loss.
